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Occurrence of Radionuclides in Residents
of the Carlsbad, New Mexico Area

Introduction

Citizen volunteers from the Carlsbad, New Mexico area were monitored for internally deposited radionuclides through a project entitled "Lie Down and Be Counted" (LDBC). This project is provided as an outreach service to the public to support education about naturally occurring and man-made radioactivity present in people who live in the vicinity of the WIPP. The data collected prior to the opening of the WIPP facility (26 March 1999) serve as a baseline for comparisons with periodic follow-up measurements that are slated to continue throughout the 35-year operational phase of the WIPP. It is important to note that these data represent an interim summary (through 1 October 1999) of an ongoing study.

Participating in the LDBC consists of a lung and whole body count every two years. Volunteers are recruited through presentations to local community groups and businesses. The entire measurement process takes approximately one hour. A detailed description of the measurement protocol, analysis, instrument and detection limits is provided in the CEMRC 1998 Report. In addition, the status of project and results are posted monthly on the CEMRC website and semi-annually through a newsletter distributed throughout the local community.

Results

As of 1 October 1999, 412 individuals have participated in the LDBC project. At the time the WIPP opened, 367 individuals had been measured using the in vivo protocol. This group of 367 measurements constitutes the pre-operational baseline to which subsequent results are compared. Counts performed after the opening of the WIPP are considered to be a part of the operational monitoring phase of the WIPP EM. Recounts of the original cohort began in July 1999, and 23 recounts had been performed through 1 October 1999.

Demographic characteristics (Table 21) of the current LDBC cohort are generally consistent with those reported in the CEMRC 1998 Report and the 1990 census for citizens living in Carlsbad. The largest deviations reported in the 1998 report between the LDBC cohort and 1990 census were the over-sampling of males and under-sampling of Hispanics. Since that time, improvements have been made with respect to the percent of males sampled, but Hispanics are still over 50% under-sampled relative to the 1990 census. In the future, demographic characteristics of the LDBC project will be compared to results of the 2000 census, which will be a more accurate representation of the current population. In addition, it is important to note that if the presence of a radionuclide is dependent on a subclass of interest (gender, ethnicity, etc.), valid population estimates can still be made by correcting for the proportion of under- or over-sampling for the particular subclass.

As discussed in detail in the CEMRC 1998 Report, the criterion, LC, was used to evaluate whether a result exceeds background, and the use of this criterion will result in a statistically inherent 5% false positive error rate per pair-wise comparison (5% of all measurements will be determined to be positive when there is no activity present in the person). For the baseline measurements (n = 367), the percentage of results greater than LC were consistent with a 5% random false positive error rate, at the 95% confidence level (1 to 9%), for all radionuclides except 232Th via 212Pb, 235U / 226Ra, 60Co, 137Cs, 40K, 54Mn, 232Th via 228Ac and 65Zn (Table 22). As discussed in detail in the 1998 report, five of these (232Th via 212Pb, 60Co, 40K, 54Mn (228Ac interference) and 232Th via 228Ac) are part of the shield-room background and positive detection is expected at low frequency. 40K is a naturally occurring isotope of an essential biological element, so detection in all individuals is expected. 137Cs and 235U / 226Ra are not components of the shielded room background and were observed at frequencies greater than the 95% confidence interval for the false positive error rate (discussed in more detail later). It is interesting that no result above LC has been observed for 65Zn. This finding may be a statistical anomaly, but may suggest an abnormality in the analysis algorithm at that photon energy.

For the operational monitoring counts (Table 22, n = 62), the percentage of results greater than LC were consistent with baseline at a 95% confidence level (margin of error). The margin of error could not be calculated for many of the percentages because the sample size of the operational monitoring counts was too small at the time of this summary. When sufficient operational monitoring counts are performed, the margin of error will be calculated. In addition, it is important to note that operational monitoring includes the counting of new individuals and the recounting of previously measured participants. Based on the data reported herein, there is no evidence of a change in the frequency of detection of internally deposited radionuclides for citizens living within the vicinity of the WIPP since the WIPP began receipt of radioactive waste.

40K results were positive for all participants (n = 412), ranging from 2120 to 6504 Bq per person with an overall mean (± SE) of 3959 (± 43) Bq. Such results are expected since K is an essential biological element contained primarily in muscle, and a theoretical constant fraction of all naturally occurring K is the radioactive isotope 40K. The mean 40K value for males (± SE), was 4531 (± 43) Bq, which was significantly greater (P < 0.0001) than that of females, which was 3218 (± 38) Bq. This result was expected since, in general, males tend to have larger body sizes and greater muscle content than females.

Detectable 137Cs is present in 27.0 ± 4.4 % (95% confidence level, baseline and operational monitoring counts) of citizens living in the Carlsbad area. These results are consistent with preliminary findings reported in the CEMRC 1997 and 1998 reports. Detectable 137Cs body burdens ranged from 5.6 to 62.9 Bq with an overall mean (± SE) of 10.8 (± 0.6) Bq. The mean 137Cs body burden for males (± SE), was 11.6 (± 0.9) Bq, which was significantly greater (p = 0.01) than that of females, which were 9.0 (± 0.5 Bq).

Individual 137Cs results were compared to two parameters of demographic data to determine whether the presence of 137Cs was dependent on a particular demographic or lifestyle characteristic, using a Chi-square test of independence (Table 23). The presence of 137Cs was independent of ethnicity, age, radiation work history, consumption of wild game, nuclear medical treatments and European travel. Occurrence of detectable 137Cs was significantly associated (p = 0.003) with gender, where males had higher prevalence of 137Cs relative to females. Presence of 137Cs was also associated with smoking habit (where smokers had a higher prevalence relative to non-smokers), but at a lower significant level (p=0.032). The results reported herein are consistent with those reported in the CEMRC 1998 Report, except that gender association was not significant (p = 0.06) in the earlier subset of the baseline data. The frequency of smoking among males and females was statistically indistinguishable (17.8 % for males, 16.6 % for females, p = 0.807), eliminating a correlation between the two variables as a confounding factor. It is likely that the association with gender is related to the tendency for larger muscle mass in males than in females, as supported by the 40K results. The association of 137Cs with smoking habit could be related to the presence of fallout 137Cs in tobacco, decreased pulmonary clearing capability in smokers, or other as yet unidentified factors, and further study is warranted.

As reported in the CEMRC 1998 Report, the percentage of results greater than LC for 235U/226Ra (11.1%) are significantly (although slightly) higher than the distribution-free confidence interval for a 5% random false positive error rate (1 to 9%). These data are not nearly as compelling as those for 137Cs, but the large sample size of the current cohort tends to support the observed pattern. Although 235U and 226Ra cannot be differentiated via gamma spectroscopy, it is likely the signal is the result of 226Ra because the natural abundance of 226Ra is much greater than that of 235U. However, further study, possibly involving in vitro bioassay for the two radionuclides (the nuclides can be distinguished via alpha spectrometry), is needed.





Table 21.  Demographic Characteristics of the
"Lie Down and Be Counted" (LDBC) Population Sample
through 1 October 1999


Characteristic LDBC, 1999 (amargin of error) LDBC, 1998 bCensus, 1990
Gender Male 56.6% (52.2 to 61.9%) 60.7% 48.0%
Female 43.43% (38.6 to 48.3%) 39.3% 52.0%
         
Ethnicity Hispanic 12.9% (9.5 to 16.3%) 14.0% 33.4%
Non-Hispanic 84.2% (80.6 to 87.9%) 82.7% 63.0%
Other 2.9% (1.2 to 4.6%) 3.3% 3.6%
         
Age 60 or older   24.8% (20.3 to 29.1%) 25.7% 33.7%
         
Currently or previously classified as a radiation worker   4.9% (2.7 to 7.0%) 4.0% cNA
         
Consumption of wild game within last 3 months   15.3% (11.7 to 18.9%) 16.9% NA
         
Medical treatment, other than x-rays, using radionuclides   9.0% (6.1 to 11.9%) 8.5% NA
         
European travel within the last 2 years   3.9% (1.9 to 5.8%) 4.4% NA
         
Current smoker   14.6% (10.9 to 18.2%) 14.0% NA
aThe margin of error represents the 95% confidence interval of the observed proportion.; under complete replication of this experiment, one would expect the confidence interval to include the true population proportion 95% of the time if the sample was representative of the true population.
bUnited States Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the Census. 1990 Census of Population. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office
cNA = not available




Table 22. Lie Down and Be Counted Results through 1 October 1999


Radionuclide In Vivo
Count Type
Baseline Counts
(prior to 27 March 1999) aN = 367
Operational Monitoring Counts
(27 March 1999 - 1 October 1999)
N = 62
% of Results ³ bLC % of Results ³ bLC cMargin of Error (%)
241Am Lung 5 8 0 to 18
144Ce Lung 5 2 dNC
252Cf Lung 4 10 0 to 18
244Cm Lung 6 6 0 to 18
155Eu Lung 7 5 NC
237Np Lung 4 3 NC
210Pb Lung 4 8 0 to 18
Plutonium
Isotope
Lung 6 3 NC
e 232Th via 212Pb Lung 34 44 33 to 64
232Th Lung 5 6 NC
232Th via 228Th Lung 4 6 0 to 18
233U Lung 6 15 4 to 31
235U / 226Ra Lung 11 11 4 to 31
Natural Uranium via 234Th Lung 5 8 0 to 18
133Ba Whole Body 4 8 0 to 18
140Ba Whole Body 5 2 NC
141Ce Whole Body 4 3 NC
58Co Whole Body 4 3 NC
e 60Co Whole Body 55 44 29 to 60
51Cr Whole Body 6 5 0 to 18
134Cs Whole Body 2 5 0 to 18
137Cs Whole Body 28 15 4 to 31
152Eu Whole Body 7 2 NC
154Eu Whole Body 4 3 NC
155Eu Whole Body 4 2 dNC
59Fe Whole Body 4 3 dNC
131I Whole Body 5 2 dNC
133I Whole Body 3 5 dNC
192Ir Whole Body 4 3 dNC
40K Whole Body 100 100 dNC
54Mn Whole Body c12 c13 0 to 18
103Ru Whole Body 2 2 dNC
106Ru Whole Body 4 2 dNC
125Sb Whole Body 5 3 dNC
232Th via 228Ac Whole Body c35 c24 13 to 40
88Y Whole Body 8 3 dNC
65Zn Whole Body 0 0 dNC
95Zr Whole Body 7 5 dNC
aN = number of individuals
bTo determine whether or not activity has been detected in a particular person, the parameter LC is used; the LC represents the 95th percentile of a null distribution that results from the differences of repeated, pair wise background measurements; an individual result is assumed to be statistically greater than background if it is greater than LC
cThe margin of error represents the 95% confidence interval of the observed percentage; under complete replication of this experiment, one would expect the confidence interval to include the true population percentage 95% of the time, if the sample was representative of the true population
dNot Calculated; the margin of error cannot be calculated for the observed percentage because the sample size for operational monitoring counts is as yet too small; when sufficient counts are performed, the margin of error will be calculated
eThese radionuclides are present in the shield background, so they are expected to be detected periodically.




Table 23.  Demographic Characteristics Associated
with Occurrence of 137Cs in Local Residents


Characteristic Percentage of Population (aN=300) where 137Cs was Not Detected (H0), (bmargin of error) Percentage of Population (aN =111) where 137Cs was Detected (HA), (bmargin of error) cp-value (HAÌ H0)
Gender Male 52.0 (46.3 to 57.7) 68.5 (59.5 to 77.5) 0.003
Female 48.0 (42.3 to 53.7) 31.5 (22.5 to 40.5)  
         
Ethnicity Hispanic 12.7 (8.7 to 16.7) 13.5 (6.3 to 20.7) 0.319
Non-Hispanic 84.7 (80.3 to 89.0) 82.9 (75.7 to 90.1)  
Other 2.6 (0.7 to 4.7) 3.6 (0.0 to 7.2)  
         
Age ³ 60 years 25.0 (20.0 to 30.0) 24.3 (16.2 to 32.4) 0.888
< 60 years 75.0 (70.0 to 80.0) 75.7 (67.6 to 83.8)  
         
Currently or previously classified as a radiation worker Yes 5.7 (3.0 to 8.3) 2.7 (0.0 to 8.1) 0.215
No 94.3 (91.7 to 97.0) 97.3 (91.7 to 100.0)  
         
Consumption of wild game within last 3 months Yes 15.0 (10.7 to 19.3) 16.2 (9.0 to 23.4) 0.761
No 85.0 (80.7 to 89.3) 83.8 (76.6 to 91.0)  
         
Medical treatment, other than x-rays, using
radionuclides
Yes 7.7 (4.3 to 11.0) 12.6 (6.3 to 18.9) 0.120
No 92.3 (89.0 to 95.7) 87.4 (81.1 to 93.7)  
         
European travel within the last 2 years Yes 3.3 (1.0 to 5.7) 5.4 (0.9 to 9.9) 0.335
No 96.7 (94.3 to 99.0) 94.6 (89.2 to 100.0)  
         
Current smoker Yes 12.3 (8.3 to 16.0) 20.7 (13.5 to 28.8) 0.033
  No 87.7 (83.7 to 91.3) 79.3 (72.1 to 87.4)  
aN = number of individuals
bThe margin of error represents the 95% confidence interval of the observed proportion; under complete replication of this experiment, one would expect the confidence interval to include the true population proportion 95% of the time if the sample was representative of the true population
cThe probability of observing a percentage greater than HA assuming that the percentage (HO) is the true value